GW36 Predictions
Team xG/G Predictions for GW36 2024/25
This may be old news now, (I didn’t post an article last week so that is fine) but LIV are Premier League Champions. This obviously puts a damper on the possible significance of the LIV v ARS match this week, but the race for Europe is in full swing for many teams.
The Predictions
MCI are the clear attacking favourites this week versus bottom of the table SOU. BRE (at IPS), NEW (vs CHE), NFO (vs LEI), and TOT (vs CRY) take the next spots, but fall below the year to date average (i.e. slightly worse fixtures than the typical best fixtures).
Defensively, NFO (vs LEI) top the list followed closely by MCI (at SOU), FUL (vs EVE), BRE (at IPS), and EVE (at FUL).
The usual top ranking teams of LIV and ARS don’t show up near the top due to their clash. LIV are 11th for attacking and ARS are 15th.
The Matchups
The predictions have a lot of close matchups this week. Some are table battles such as MUN v WHU and NEW v CHE, while others are just closely ranked teams. MCI the clear favourites this week with BRE and NFO the other standout teams for a win.
Feature Matchup
When teams ranged fourth and fifth face off at the end of the season with every point mattering, it is time to bring the feature matchup. (note that this based on only my model and my own tweaks to a Poisson distribution.) Looking at the team rankings, they area pretty much neck and neck with the home advantage swinging the prediction. As the home team NEW have the advantage, but a 1-1 result is still the most likely, followed by 2-1 for NEW.
Closing
The hope of an extra blank and double gameweek has passed and we will just be playing out three “normal” gameweeks to close out the season. Still some places to play for and the usual end of season surprises. So go out and enjoy it while it lasts and see you next week.