The international break is over and the PL/FPL is back! Keen eyes will have noticed that I have still not posted more results, but thanks to FPL Prophecy, “I” found an error in my results summary table. So that has now been fixed and my procrastination has saved me from misleading you (except for GW1, which will be updated soon). I would like to chat and make up more excuses, but time is short and you probably care less about that than . . .
The Predictions
(see what I did there? no? It apparently does not work as well in non-video formats. whelp)
So, technically, the best attacking fixture is TOT (vs SHU) with a close behind three of MCI (at WHU), MUN (vs BHA), and NEW (vs BRE). LIV (at WOL) and ARS (at EVE) are the next step down. However, the top 4 are not unanimous nor a consistent order in the picks (for example, my model, xElo, has the order of the top 4 in the reverse order).
In terms of defensive picks, TOT (vs SHU) seem to be the (relatively) clear favourite. After that it is margins, but I will call out AVL (vs CRY) as the second best because that surprised me a bit.
Overall, the attacking predictions for the top half of the teams are a bit noisy with the exception of the ARS (at EVE) and CHE (at BOU) predictions. Not certain on the cause of this but it may be some of the offseason tweaking that some models do versus others that let things sort themselves out over time. Something to keep an eye on to see if things do converge or if the various methodologies will always differ a bit.
Closing
That is all for now. At some point I should be posting some results. Also, there is a post coming out soon that provides a summary of the various details and data sources of the models. Key an eye out for that and have a great GW5 (and beyond)!